California’s GOP Civil War
Divide and conquer is an indisputably effective strategy to defeat an adversary, and it helps a lot when said adversary is divided into warring factions without any help or encouragement from an outside opponent. Such is the dysfunction that afflicts the California Republican Party as we enter 2025 and a new election cycle.
The reason Republican failures in California have national relevance is because they are a microcosm—a very big microcosm—of what divisions persist among Republicans nationally. And while Republicans are winning overall in America today, if victory tilts again to Democrats in a future round of elections, a likely cause will be rifts within the party.
Over the next several weeks, California’s Republican Party county central committees will select their new chairmen. These positions are voted on by committee members and are significant because the county chairmen select the delegates to the state party convention, and in turn, those delegates vote for who will become the new state party chairman. That vote will happen this spring at the state convention.
Whoever leads the California State Republican Party will have a big influence on how much major donor support the party receives, alongside how much grassroots support the party receives. And herein lies the dilemma. Major donors back moderates. California’s grassroots Republicans, six million strong, do not. There is no better way to explain that. It’s not subtle. It is a bitter and ongoing struggle.
In pursuit of goals that cannot possibly be won in California, many of the state’s grassroots activists are uncompromising. The issue of abortion is the biggest example. There are pro-life but moderate activists fighting for control of county Republican central committees who argue that it is an issue where it may take decades, if ever, before a majority of California’s voters will support, for example, laws on the books in North Dakota. They are pitted against pro-life activists who don’t care if it’s a winning issue or a losing issue. It’s a matter of principle. But if they take over the state party and issue an unequivocal statement calling for strict abortion laws, donations will dry up and Republican candidates will lose.
Perhaps somewhat unique to internal party politics is the fact that money doesn’t play as critical a role in who ends up controlling a county party chairmanship. If someone with Elon Musk’s resources decided to back Republican candidates in California and establish an independent campaign operation in support of that candidate (please?), the tilted, rigged, uphill battle facing any Republican candidate in the state would get much easier. But it’s harder for money to influence the participants on a county central committee. Most volunteers running for positions on these committees are motivated by strong passions and don’t need financed campaigns. And few issues in politics excite the passions more than abortion. Hence the Republican central committees across California have voting members, in many cases majorities, who are willing to burn the party to the ground before they will moderate their position on abortion.
God bless them. Abortion is an abomination. But hell will freeze before California’s electorate will vote for a governor who makes that the centerpiece of their campaign.
The path to fitful unity on this issue among Republicans in the rest of America required the leadership of President-elect Trump. His insistence that abortion be left to each state to decide was a necessary compromise to attract undecided voters in battleground states, and it worked. It was also consistent with the Dobbs decision, which hinged on states’ rights. But Trump’s approach won’t work in California.
In California, Trump has been a godsend to Democrats whose ability to taint all Republicans as bigots was wearing thin. Suddenly all the clichés are fresh again, as Trump’s spontaneous and out-of-context quips are exploited by professional campaign strategists backed by billions in public sector union and leftist billionaire money to reinforce the negative brand. If you’re a Republican, you’re a racist.
For this reason, the Trump tide that handed Democrats a defeat they didn’t expect crested on the eastern slopes of the Sierras. And when it comes to unifying California’s Republicans, the irony is thick. Trump’s policies, notwithstanding his hyperbole, offer the fusion that California’s Republicans desperately need. They offer the moderate, nonpartisan, and unifying populist solutions that would work in California. If candidates were to come forward to express them, and major donors were to come forward to support those candidates, maybe the state’s Republicans would have a chance.
As it is, California’s Republicans gained a few seats in the state legislature in swing districts. These were victories without meaning. The Democrats still wield a 60 to 19 advantage in the state assembly and a 30 to 9 advantage in the state senate (both state chambers have one vacant seat). Meanwhile, California’s congressional delegation dwindled from a dismal 12 out of 52 to only 9 out of 52. The dysfunction and disunity of Republicans in California came perilously close to handing Democrats control of the House of Representatives.
The Democrats’ lock on California politics can be broken. The state is a mess. The litany of failures under two decades of Democrat control has enraged voters. Highest rates of poverty. Highest tax rates. Worst business climate. Ridiculous, excessive regulations. Unaffordable homes. Expensive energy and rationed water. Record homelessness. Unacceptable crime. Failing schools. Rising state and local government debt and deficits. Corruption, inefficiency, and activist bias across every agency. With even the slightest rise in Republican party competence, the state would flip.
The solutions aren’t a mystery. Deregulate housing and energy to lower costs and create good jobs. Review every regulation and every state agency and cut regulations and cut overstaffed agencies. End the disastrous “housing-first” policies and instead give homeless people safe shelter in inexpensive barracks where sobriety is a condition of entry and staying on the streets is not an option. Spend public funds on reservoirs, desalination, and wastewater recycling plants instead of on the “bullet train.” Recognize that the common road is the future of transportation, not the past, and widen California’s freeways and highways. Build nuclear power plants and develop California’s abundant natural gas reserves. Let timber companies harvest more lumber in exchange for maintaining fire roads and power line corridors. Implement school choice and make public schools compete with private schools on the basis of excellence. And not to forget the obvious: Prosecute criminals.
That’s the opportunity, but it cannot happen until new leadership emerges in California with policies and strategies that are unifying instead of polarizing. California is still a beautiful state, but if the electorate were offered choices from a unified opposition, it could once again inspire the nation. Whether or not California’s Republican Party can unite for the 2026 election cycle will in large part be decided over the next few weeks.
If the Republicans can take back California, that will almost certainly mean Republicans have secured national dominance for the foreseeable future. But the prerequisite to that also has national consequences. California’s Republican grassroots activists are as authentic and principled as any activist Republicans anywhere in America. If California’s Republican leadership can retain the support of their grassroots with a platform that nonetheless attracts a majority of all the voters in California, it will be a model that will transfer to every other state in the country.
Ending the GOP’s civil war in California has national implications. We may hope they don’t blow it.
