Hell on the Steppe. The casualties of the Ukraine war.

As soon as this war began, or rather as soon as the 8 year old conflict in the Donbas escalated to a full scale war between Russia and Ukraine (+ NATO help), many people knew that the casualties of this war would be hard to come across by, downplayed, hidden from the public, and even losses being confused for one side or the other.

But now that the conflict is a year old we can begin to measure or give an approximate estimate as to who lost more and how much the numbers are. First starting off with Russia, since it happens to be the easiest to give an estimate for their casualties.

And before I continue I want to heavily stress the meaning of casualties. Casualties does not mean KILLED, casualties only means killed, wounded, missing, or captured. I.e. soldiers who have been taken out of combat and cannot fight, that is the definition of a casualty, it does not mean killed, only those who cannot fight anymore.

UKRAINE/WESTERN SOURCES

Now of course before anyone says anything, the sources from both Ukraine and the West should of course be taken with a grain of salt since both have a reason to exaggerate their claims. This is the breakdown of Russian casualties by these sources from Wikipedia:

Now, like I’ve mentioned above, most of this is just estimation and propaganda numbers, really there’s only been no more than 15,000 confirmed Russian military deaths, a far cry from the 153,000 claimed by the Ukrainian government. Which is quite weird since the Ukrainian government did not mention the casualties, only the amount killed. And doing the ratio of killed to wounded in modern war (which is 1:2), we get 300,000 casualties by Russia. Logically speaking, 300k casualties is something that a country cannot hide, it would only be a matter of time before mothers, wives, sisters would complain about how their sons, husbands, and brothers are being killed en mass.

And not only that, but if Russia really did take 300k casualties, they would not be able to push as they are currently doing, parts of the front line would collapse due to there not being enough troops to man the front, dig trenches, repair vehicles, etc. And we know for a fact that the US has hundreds of satellites currently monitoring Russian movements in Ukraine, would they not be able to see where the Russians are spread thin? In what areas?

They absolutely would, and then they would pass this information to the Ukrainian government, which goes to the military on the frontline. And not only that but the fact that the Russians have been massing more troops on the border with Ukraine from Belarus and other areas shows that they are not suffering from a supposed “300k casualty” figure. It’s simply logic that many today lack.

PRO RUSSIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES FOR RUSSIAN CASUALTIES:

Some will be from Wikipedia, others will be from Russian websites.
From Wikipedia:

This not only includes the Russian armed forces, but militia forces like the DPR (Donetsk people’s republic), LPR (Lugansk people’s republic), Wagner private military company, and other smaller PMC’s. Which would explain the high number of wounded since the DPR, and LPR are mostly militia’s and not a professional army like Russia or Wagner is.

This source is from a Russian website called “mediazona”, it does not specify casualties, only killed.

The link for the website: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Now looking at these casualties one can call it “Russian propaganda” “lies”, etc. But looking at it logically it does make more sense than the absurd numbers of the West and Ukraine. Looking at the total casualties for Russia, it probably stands at 40-50k since last year.

We also cannot forget the militias of the DPR, LPR, Wagner, and others. So all in all I do not think its unreasonable to assume that including all of this together, Russia has probably taken anywhere between 70-90k casualties since the beginning of the war. Which like I mentioned before is a far cry from the 200k estimate from the US government.

UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES BY WESTERN SOURCES:

Moving onto Ukrainian casualty estimates by the West which is probably the hardest to come by, first we will be looking at the Wikipedia gathering of the sources.

The entirety of the West seems to be in agreement that Ukraine for sure has taken more than 100k casualties during 1 year of fighting, with the US estimate being outdated by 4 months, a quite worrying some sign. And we cannot forget the moment which shined the light on the casualties of Ukraine with the European commissioner, Ursula von der Leyen stating that more than 100,000 Ukrainians have been killed:

Now I want to reiterate, killed is not the same as casualties. Which means that Ukrainian has likely taken a lot more than 100k casualties. Doing the 2:1 wounded to killed ratio that modern armies suffer, this would put the total casualties of Ukraine to 300,000. Of course I am not saying this is complete fact, but when the European commissioner of the EU is saying the 100,000 killed number out in public, it does set a tone for the rest of us.

UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES BY RUSSIAN SOURCES:

Like above we will be showing the Wikipedia gathering first and then other less famous sources but just as creditable.

You’ll notice that it is a bit lower than the Western sources but keep in mind the last mention of Ukrainian casualties was back in September 2022. 6 months ago. So the estimate is far higher than what is reported here with the casualties being at 110,575 for Ukraine. A sizeable amount.

Now getting onto a very famous and reliable source by the name of “Rybar” a Russian mapper who had many sources on the ground with the Russian and Wagner forces. They put out a casualty estimate from their telegram channel right here:

If this is true then the losses are catastrophic and monumental for Ukraine. 200,000 casualties is not an easy number to hide. Which would explain why Ukraine is getting pushed back on some parts of the front, mainly the Bakhmut front.

Another source that is neutral and seems to be from Turkey. By the name of “Anews” in which they question 1,600 Ukrainians across the country about “Have they lost a loved one” and here were the answers:

Seventeen percent many not seem like a lot, but factoring in the population of Ukraine (which now probably stands at 30 million due to the 8 million leaving). We get a number of 5.1 million which of course is not even possible but it still is an interesting poll nonetheless since the number went from 9% losing a loved one in September 2022, to now 17% in February 22, 2023. A doubling in 6 months which cannot be ignored since I have seen facebook post after post of many of the relatives of Ukrainian soldiers wondering where they went, how they’re doing, etc. It is a horrible thing to see and I predict that the problem is only going to get worse for Ukraine unless they call another mobilization wave (they’re currently on their 8th mobilization wave) or they could plug in their lines with western mercenaries.

FINAL ESTIMATE:

Seeing all the sources from many websites that I have not covered. I think it is reasonable to assume that Russia + militia + Wagner have taken no more than 100k casualties with the sweet spot being 70-90k.

As for Ukraine, its already confirmed their casualty numbers are above 110k, with the sweet spot being somewhere between 150-200k casualties, with some putting it in the 300k range (I doubt that myself but would not be surprised if it turns out to be true.)

These are colossal losses by both sides especially since we have been accustomed to modern warfare in which casualties are minimal, no more than 10k losses for both sides like the Gulf war, 2003 Iraq war, and Afghanistan war. And with both sides gearing up for where to place their new offensives, you only expect the number to grow faster from here.

(Republished from https://amongenjoyer.substack.com/p/hell-on-the-steppe-the-casualties“>Among Enjoyer by permission of author or representative)