Prelude? Ukraine Launches Their Offensive.
It first started in January of this year. “A major Ukraine spring offensive is imminent” read the headlines of Western media companies for months, seemingly endless articles about the supply of Western training, equipment, and intelligence to the AFU army. And still weeks went by with no sign of an offensive anywhere with the exception of a small incursion on the Bakhmut flanks. All the while as the Russians hit multiple supply and fuel depots behind Ukrainian lines.
As days turned into weeks, Spring offensive turned into Summer offensive, we may finally be witnessing the hyped up “counteroffensive” by the Ukrainians. Yesterday near noon (EST time), we had reports coming in of armored Ukrainian assaults in the North of Zaporizhia. Area marked in red is where the main thrust seemed to have played out.
This area does make sense as this is the spot where Russian defenses are the weakest, so from a tactical standpoint it does appear Ukraine might be testing how strong the defenses are in this area. https://twitter.com/InsaleZ/status/1665410180928905224?s=20
Good summarizer of what happened yesterday. Ukrainians launched their attack, entrenched their positions and then were pushed out by the Russians during the night. It is unknown how many losses were inflicted, Russian sources estimate 20+ armored vehicles were lost during this battle, mostly NATO equipment. The more interesting thing is that some of the Russian soldiers on the ground stated a couple of Leopard tanks were involved in the attack, it is unknown if any of them were destroyed or damaged.
But right before I wrote this, the Ukrainians again launched another offensive in this area, roughly towards the same positions as yesterday, unclear as to how many soldiers or equipment is currently involved. But we do know that the Russians lost their positions at Novodoneskoe. Map below.
Battles are still going on, it seems possible to me that once the Ukrainians gain a foothold strong enough in this area, they’ll launch another offensive to the east as their “main offensive”. This one will be the deciding factor if Ukraine makes or breaks Russia.