The Risk Of A World War
The United States has deployed two carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean in order to deter Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq from retaliating against Israel for its brutal campaign in Gaza.
This effectively makes the US navy the guarantor of Israel’s war crimes, since it relieves Netanyahu of any pressure from Iranian forces to mitigate civilian casualties out of fear of reprisal.
Although the ground offensive has not begun, Israel has displaced more than a quarter of Gaza’s population and is poised to devastate the strip in a genocidal modern “Nakba.”
This will not only rally the entire Muslim world against Israel, but also against the United States.
Moreover, depending on the intensity of Israel’s military campaign, a chain reaction of events may be initiated in which Iran’s proxies are forced to intervene regardless of US naval presence, giving Israel a pretext to strike Iran directly.
Such an interstate conflict would necessarily draw in the United States to defend Israel and the Russia/China alliance to defend Iran.
We are rapidly approaching a point of no return after which it may be impossible for either side to ramp off from a widening and escalating conflict that may draw in the entire region and then the world.
This is another chapter in the ongoing diplomatic revolution that began last year with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In that conflict, the US backed a loser, which erodes the weight and credibility of its deterrent military power.
In this conflict, the US is backing a villain, which undermines its moral authority and diplomatic cachet.
The Ukraine War inflicted catastrophic and uneven economic losses on NATO allies like Germany and France, whose leaders have since reiterated calls for “strategic autonomy.”
The Gaza War may have already killed the Saudi-Israel normalization deal and spurred further rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Each emergent conflict along the fault line between the United States and Russia/China draws on the bankrupt US economy and depleted US military— and each time carries the risk of a world war.
