{"id":108852,"date":"2024-08-14T01:43:41","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T06:43:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mindseyemag.com\/magazine\/?p=108852"},"modified":"2024-08-14T01:43:41","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T06:43:41","slug":"a-treatise-on-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindseyemag.com\/magazine\/a-treatise-on-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"A Treatise On Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A Treatise on Probability<\/i>\u00a0<\/b>,[<\/span>1]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>\u00a0published by\u00a0John Maynard Keynes<\/a>\u00a0in 1921, provides a much more general logic of\u00a0uncertainty<\/a>\u00a0than the more familiar and straightforward ‘classical’ theories of\u00a0probability<\/a>.\u00a0[<\/span>notes 1]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>[<\/span>3]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>[<\/span>notes 2]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>\u00a0This has since become known as a “logical-relationist” approach,[<\/span>5]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>[<\/span>notes 3]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>\u00a0and become regarded as the seminal and still classic account of the logical\u00a0interpretation of probability<\/a>\u00a0(or\u00a0probabilistic logic<\/a>), a view of probability that has been continued by such later works as\u00a0Carnap<\/a>‘s\u00a0Logical Foundations of Probability<\/i>\u00a0and\u00a0E.T. Jaynes<\/a>\u00a0Probability Theory: The Logic of Science<\/i>.[<\/span>8]<\/span><\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

Keynes’s conception of this generalised notion of probability is that it is a strictly logical relation between evidence and hypothesis, a degree of partial implication. It was in part pre-empted by Bertrand Russell’s use of an unpublished version.[<\/span>9]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>[<\/span>notes 4]<\/span><\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

In a 1922 review,\u00a0Bertrand Russell<\/a>, the co-author of\u00a0Principia Mathematica<\/a><\/i>, called it “undoubtedly the most important work on probability that has appeared for a very long time,” and said that the “book as a whole is one which it is impossible to praise too highly.”[<\/span>17]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>\u00a0[<\/span>notes 5]<\/span><\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

With recent developments in\u00a0machine learning<\/a>\u00a0to enable ‘artificial intelligence<\/a>‘ and\u00a0behavioural economics<\/a>\u00a0the need for a logical approach that neither assumes some unattainable ‘objectivity’ nor relies on the subjective views of its designers or policy-makers has become more appreciated, and there has been a renewed interest in Keynes’s work.[<\/span>20]<\/span><\/a><\/sup>[<\/span>21]<\/span><\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

– Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n